Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh: Advantage BJP as chinks in INDIA bloc armour exposed

The Rajya Sabha biennial election has exposed chinks in the ranks of political parties, especially the Opposition INDIA bloc, a day before legislators vote to elect 10 MPs from Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday.

There are 10 Rajya Sabha seats and 11 candidates in the fray with the BJP nominating eight candidates and the Samajwadi Party having fielded three candidates.

The BJP and the SP appear to have no problems in winning seven and two seats, respectively, if the MLAs of both the camps vote as per their declared positions. But reports that eight SP MLAs skipped a dinner and meeting hosted by party chief Akhilesh Yadav has further heightened speculation. The Samajwadi Party is a key constituent of the opposition INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh.

On the poll eve, both the camps indulged in dinner politics for last minute lobbying, though the BJP appears to be on a firm footing.

As the election to Rajya Sabha is held through proportional representation by means of single transferable vote, the political parties make strategic allocation of votes to their candidates to ensure that all of them get the required quota to win. All the MLAs are required to write their preferences on the ballot paper with the pen provided by the returning officer for the purpose.

With three vacancies, the Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly has an effective strength of 399 members. Three MLAs are in different jails. This reduces the effective strength of the house to 396. If all other MLAs vote and the value of each vote is taken to be 100, the total value of valid votes comes to 39,600.

To work out the required winning quota for every seat will be 39,600, this is divided by the number of seats going for poll plus one. Then, one is added to this number, taking the total value of every vote to 3601. This means, each winning candidate will need a vote value of 3601. So, every political party will have to allot at least 37 MLAs though this will have surplus vote value. The surplus votes are considered if the second or subsequent preferences are counted to declare the winner.

KEY NUMBERS AND VOTE VALUE

* With three vacancies, the U.P. assembly has 399 MLAs. Three of them are in jail. This brings down the voting strength to 396.

* If 100 is taken to be each vote’s value, the value of votes required for each winning candidate will be 3601.

* This requires each side to allocate at least 37 MLAs to ensure victory of one candidate. This means the BJP needs 296 MLAs while the SP needs 111 MLAs. Going by this calculation, the BJP falls short of nine MLAs while the SP is short of three MLAs, if the position of lawmakers of the respective parties does not change and all of them vote.

* However, as per the value of vote (3601), the BJP will require the vote of only 289 MLAs while the SP will need the support of 109 lawmakers. This number will go down further if any member abstains from voting.

* However, some MLAs from one side may cross over to the other side, and the camp that that keeps its flock intact, which is likely to be the BJP, will ensure the victory of the 10th candidate.